Will the U.S. unemployment rate for November 2026 be at least 4.2 %?
échéance 2026-12-20
confiance moyenne
preuve niveau 1
61 %estimation PolySignal
Critère de résolution
Resolves YES if the first value read on or after 2026-12-20 from the FRED series UNRATE (civilian unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, BLS data republished by FRED) shows for November 2026 a rate (one decimal) of at least 4.2 %. The value read at that moment is final (later revisions, including annual seasonal-adjustment revisions, do not change the outcome). If the November 2026 value is not yet published on 2026-12-20, the check is repeated until 2026-12-30, after which the question is voided. Also voided if the BLS changes the base period or the definition of the series. Reference at creation: 4.2 % (September 2026). Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
État de départ vérifié
Computed base rate: 52% of past two-month changes in this series since 1990 reached the change implied by this threshold (threshold 4.2 %, reference 4.2 % in 2026-09). Overlapping windows: small effective sample. Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Les arguments ci-dessous ont été produits par le modèle en anglais. Ils sont affichés tels quels plutôt que traduits automatiquement, pour que rien sur cette page ne soit un texte que PolySignal n'a pas réellement écrit.
Ce qui fait monter
- September 2026 unemployment rate was reported at 4.2 %, indicating the threshold is already met and could persist into November [tier 2]
- Recent labor‑market data show a slowdown, which historically precedes higher unemployment rates [tier 2]
Ce qui fait descendre
- Jobless claims dipped to 197,000, signaling labor‑market resilience that could keep unemployment below 4.2 % [tier 4]
- Midterm‑related hiring slowdown may be temporary and not translate into higher unemployment [tier 4]
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre
The actual October and November unemployment figures; any unexpected shift in hiring or claims trends would move the estimate most.
Comment ce chiffre est fabriqué
| Échéance | 2026-12-20 |
| Taux de base | 52% |
| Meilleure preuve | niveau 1 · 6 article(s) utilisé(s) |
| Estimations | 60 · 62 (écart 2 pts) |
| Confiance | moyenne |
| Plafond de preuve | non déclenché |
| Révisée le | 2026-10-09 12:20 |
| Modèle | openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq) |
Sources consultées