Will the U.S. unemployment rate for November 2026 be at least 4.2 %?

Resolves YES if the first value read on or after 2026-12-20 from the FRED series UNRATE (civilian unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, BLS data republished by FRED) shows for November 2026 a rate (one decimal) of at least 4.2 %. The value read at that moment is final (later revisions, including annual seasonal-adjustment revisions, do not change the outcome). If the November 2026 value is not yet published on 2026-12-20, the check is repeated until 2026-12-30, after which the question is voided. Also voided if the BLS changes the base period or the definition of the series. Reference at creation: 4.2 % (September 2026). Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Computed base rate: 52% of past two-month changes in this series since 1990 reached the change implied by this threshold (threshold 4.2 %, reference 4.2 % in 2026-09). Overlapping windows: small effective sample. Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

The actual October and November unemployment figures; any unexpected shift in hiring or claims trends would move the estimate most.