Will the highest SimpleQA Verified score score in Epoch AI's benchmark data reach at least 83.0 % for a model released on or before 2026-12-13?
échéance 2026-12-13
confiance moyenne
preuve niveau 1
17 %estimation PolySignal
Critère de résolution
Resolves YES if, in a snapshot of Epoch AI's benchmark data (https://epoch.ai/data/benchmark_data.zip, file "simpleqa_verified.csv", column "mean_score") taken on or after 2026-12-27, at least one model with a release date on or before 2026-12-13 has a value >= 83.0 %. Reference at creation: 76.0 % (gemini-4-argon_high, 2026-09-30). Voided if Epoch AI revises the methodology so that values are no longer comparable, or retires the file. Data: Epoch AI, CC BY 4.0.
État de départ vérifié
Computed base rate: 14% of past 60-day windows in Epoch AI's benchmark data saw the running record rise by at least the required amount (threshold 0.83, current record 0.76). Data: Epoch AI, CC BY 4.0, epoch.ai/benchmarks. Overlapping windows: small effective sample.
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Ce qui fait monter
- The recent release of gemini-4-argon_high on 2026-09-30 established a new record of 76.0%, demonstrating that frontier models are still making significant gains in factual accuracy [1].
- The current 'Gemini 4' era of models suggests a high frequency of updates and competition among top-tier labs that could bridge the 7% gap within two months [1].
Ce qui fait descendre
- A 7-percentage-point jump at the high end of the accuracy spectrum (from 76% to 83%) is statistically rare, occurring in only 14% of historical 60-day windows for this benchmark [1].
- As scores approach higher levels of accuracy, the difficulty of eliminating remaining errors typically increases, leading to diminishing returns in performance gains [0].
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre
The release schedule of next-generation frontier models or 'Ultra/Pro' variants from major labs like Google, OpenAI, or Anthropic before the December 13 deadline.
Comment ce chiffre est fabriqué
| Échéance | 2026-12-13 |
| Taux de base | 14% |
| Meilleure preuve | niveau 1 · 2 article(s) utilisé(s) |
| Estimations | 15 · 18 (écart 3 pts) |
| Confiance | moyenne |
| Plafond de preuve | non déclenché |
| Révisée le | 2026-10-14 07:59 |
| Modèle | gemini-3-flash-preview |
Sources consultées