Will the highest SimpleQA Verified score score in Epoch AI's benchmark data reach at least 83.0 % for a model released on or before 2026-12-13?
deadline 2026-12-13
confidence medium
tier 1 evidence
17%PolySignal estimate
Resolution criterion
Resolves YES if, in a snapshot of Epoch AI's benchmark data (https://epoch.ai/data/benchmark_data.zip, file "simpleqa_verified.csv", column "mean_score") taken on or after 2026-12-27, at least one model with a release date on or before 2026-12-13 has a value >= 83.0 %. Reference at creation: 76.0 % (gemini-4-argon_high, 2026-09-30). Voided if Epoch AI revises the methodology so that values are no longer comparable, or retires the file. Data: Epoch AI, CC BY 4.0.
Verified starting state
Computed base rate: 14% of past 60-day windows in Epoch AI's benchmark data saw the running record rise by at least the required amount (threshold 0.83, current record 0.76). Data: Epoch AI, CC BY 4.0, epoch.ai/benchmarks. Overlapping windows: small effective sample.
What pushes it up
- The recent release of gemini-4-argon_high on 2026-09-30 established a new record of 76.0%, demonstrating that frontier models are still making significant gains in factual accuracy [1].
- The current 'Gemini 4' era of models suggests a high frequency of updates and competition among top-tier labs that could bridge the 7% gap within two months [1].
What pushes it down
- A 7-percentage-point jump at the high end of the accuracy spectrum (from 76% to 83%) is statistically rare, occurring in only 14% of historical 60-day windows for this benchmark [1].
- As scores approach higher levels of accuracy, the difficulty of eliminating remaining errors typically increases, leading to diminishing returns in performance gains [0].
What would move this number most
The release schedule of next-generation frontier models or 'Ultra/Pro' variants from major labs like Google, OpenAI, or Anthropic before the December 13 deadline.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-12-13 |
| Base rate | 14% |
| Best evidence | tier 1 · 2 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 15 · 18 (spread 3 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-14 07:59 |
| Model | gemini-3-flash-preview |
Sources consulted